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http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/14/sc/
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1. Impact
Starting on the 14 May 2014, severe rainfall hit south-eastern Europe. The recent period had already been wet and the ground was more or less saturates. Impact?
Warnings on Meteoalarm for the 14 and 15 May.
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show z500 and t850 forecasts from HRES, all valid at 00UTC on 15 May. The first plot is the analysis. The large-scale cut-off low was very well predicted.
Gallery includeLabel z500_hres sort comment title z500 and t850 HRES forecasts (all valid 15 May 00UTC)
The nest plots show the same forecasts but for MSLP and precipitation.
Gallery includeLabel msl_hres sort comment title MSLP and precipiation HRES (all valid 15 May 00UTC)
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Gallery includeLabel efi_d5 sort comment title EFI 5-day (12-17 May)
The plots above show the EFI for a 5-day period (12-17 May for all but the last plot where the period is shiffted 1 day). The signal is prsent already from the longest forecast presented here and gets stronger as the event approches.
Gallery includeLabel efi_1d sort comment title EFI for 14 May
The plots above show the EFI for 14 May from different initial times.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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Gallery includeLabel efas_severe sort comment title EFAS
The figures above show the sites where the alert levels are reached in the EFAS forecasts. The colour of the circles corresponds to different return periods (purple>20 years).
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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