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The plots below show CDF for 3-day precipitation 13 May 06UTC to 16 May 06UTC for Beograd, for different centres. The observed value for the period was 174 mm. Here the results are quite mixed
Gallery includeLabel tigge_cdf_3d sort comment title TIGGE CDF for Beograd (3-day)
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The plots below show CDF for 3-day precipitation 13 May 06UTC to 16 May 06UTC for Loznica (point for 44.3N, 19.1E), for different centres. The observed value for the period was 213 mm. Here UKMO outperformed all other centres.
Gallery includeLabel tigge_cdf_3d_loz sort comment title TIGGE CDF for Loznica (3-day)
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The plot below shows the CDF for 14 May 06UTC to 15 May 06UTC for Beograd (left 108 mm observed) and Loznica (right, 110 mm observed). On this short lead time only NCEP got high precipitation amounts (108 mm was observed)for Beograd, while UKMO had a bad forecast. For Loznica CMC had the worst performance.
For this point, the ECMWF forecast was generally worse than for other centres, but might captured the signal one day earlier (8 May). We have to check whether the differences can be due to difference in orography. Optimally, the diagnostics should be done for an area averageTo conclude, the results are quite mixed comparing different centres. The outstanding results are the high precipitation for 3-days from UKMO for Loznica.
3.6 EFAS
Gallery includeLabel efas_severe sort comment title EFAS
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