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The figures above show the precipitation verification for 15 May 06UTC - 16 May 06UTC for forecast from 13, 14 and 15 may 00UTC. Here the extreme precipitation over the orography in Austria and Slovakia was underestimated.
The plots below show the accumulated precipitation 12 May 06UTC to 17 May 06UTC for forecast with different resolutions (T1279, T639 and T319) initialised 12 May 00UTC. For this forecast it is a clear difference between the resolutions.
3.3 ENS
Gallery includeLabel efi_d5 sort comment title EFI 5-day (12-17 May)
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
The plots below show the accumulated precipitation 12 May 06UTC to 17 May 06UTC for forecast (control) from different centre (ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP and CMC) initialised 12 May 00UTC. Most rain was produced by UKMO and CMC.
The plots below show CDF for 5-day precipitation 12 May 06UTC to 17 May 06UTC for Beograd (point for 44.9N, 20.3E), for different centres obtained from the TIGGE archive. The observed value for the period was 190 mm.
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To conclude, the results are quite mixed comparing different centres. The outstanding results are the high precipitation for 3-days from UKMO for Loznica.
The plots below show the accumulated precipitation 14 May 06UTC to 15 May 06UTC for forecast (control) from different centre (ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP and CMC) initialised 14 May 00UTC.For being short forecasts, the results are quite different from the 4 centres.
3.6 EFAS
Gallery includeLabel efas_severe sort comment title EFAS
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