Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus Mohamed
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/08/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/09/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/12/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/13/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/14/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/15/sc/
1. Impact
Starting on the 14 May 2014, severe rainfall hit south-eastern Europe. The recent period had already been wet and the ground was more or less saturates. On 18 May, the Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia requested assistance through the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. Serbia declared a state of emergency on Thur 15 May.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/15/us-balkans-flood-idUSBREA4E0PA20140515
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27459184
Warnings on Meteoalarm for the 14 and 15 May.
2. Description of the event
Radar sequence from the Romanian Met Service for part of 14 May.
The figures above show the observed precipiation for the 14 and 15 May (06-06) and a HRES forecast.
The connection to the system giving all the rain, high wind gusts where measured, especially in the Slovakian mountains.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show z500 and t850 forecasts from HRES, all valid at 00UTC on 15 May. The first plot is the analysis. The large-scale cut-off low was very well predicted.
z500 and t850 HRES forecasts (all valid 15 May 00UTC)
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The nest plots show the same forecasts but for MSLP and precipitation.
MSLP and precipiation HRES (all valid 15 May 00UTC)
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3.3 ENS
EFI 5-day (12-17 May)
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The plots above show the EFI for a 5-day period (12-17 May for all but the last plot where the period is shiffted 1 day). The signal is prsent already from the longest forecast presented here and gets stronger as the event approches.
EFI for 14 May
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The plots above show the EFI for 14 May from different initial times.
The figure above show the CDF for Beograd, valid the 14 may. The observed precipitation for that day (0-0 UTC) was 112.6 mm (station 13274). The last forecast was more extreme than the earlier, but still underestimated the rain.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
3.6 EFAS
EFAS
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The figures above show the sites where the alert levels are reached in the EFAS forecasts. The colour of the circles corresponds to different return periods (purple>20 years).
The figures above show the modelled flow for river Sava, close to Beograd.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases