Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus Mohamed
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/08/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/09/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/12/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/13/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/14/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/15/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/16/sc/
1. Impact
Starting on the 13 May 2014, severe rainfall hit south-eastern Europe. The event continued until the 16 May. The worst affected countries were Serbia and Bosnia - Herzegovina. Currently more than 30 people have died in land-slides and the flooding following the rain. Heavy rainfall and strong winds also affected Austria, Slovakia and other neighbouring countries.
On 18 May, the Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia requested assistance through the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. Serbia declared a state of emergency on Thur 15 May.
The is a list of new items on the event:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/15/us-balkans-flood-idUSBREA4E0PA20140515
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27459184
Warnings on Meteoalarm for the 14 and 15 May. Red warnings where issued for rainfall in Serbia, Bosnia - Herzegovina, Austria and Slovakia.
2. Description of the event
The figures below show the analyses of t850 and z500 (00UTC). The rainfall was caused by a cut-off low situated over south-east Europe, bringing moist winds from east, hitting the mountains on Balkan.
z500 and t850 analyses
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The month before the event had been wet and the ground was already saturated in the area, as seen in the figures below.
Soil moisture level 1,2,3 analysis
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Radar sequence from the Romanian Met Service for part of 14 May, snowing the persistent rainfall over Serbia and parts of Romania.
The figures above show the observed precipitation for the 14 and 15 May (06-06) and a HRES forecast.
The table below shows the observed precipitation for Loznica (13262, 44.3N, 19.1N), Beograd (13274, 44.9N, 20.3E) and Valjevo (13269, 44.2N, 19.5E). The precipitation is the 24-hour observed at 06UTC. The total for the 5-day period was for Loznica 219 mm, Beograd 190 mm and Valjevo 199 mm.
| Loznica | Beograd | Valjevo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 May | 50 | 21 | 38 |
| 15 May | 110 | 108 | 108 |
| 16 May | 53 | 45 | 44 |
| 17 May | 6 | 16 | 3 |
The connection to the system giving all the rain, high wind gusts where measured, especially in the Slovakian mountains.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show z500 and t850 forecasts from HRES, all valid at 00UTC on 15 May. The first plot is the analysis. The large-scale cut-off low was very well predicted.
z500 and t850 HRES forecasts (all valid 15 May 00UTC)
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The nest plots show the same forecasts but for MSLP and precipitation.
MSLP and precipiation HRES (all valid 15 May 00UTC)
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3.3 ENS
EFI 5-day (12-17 May)
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The plots above show the EFI for a 5-day period (12-17 May for all but the last plot where the period is shiffted 1 day). The signal is prsent already from the longest forecast presented here and gets stronger as the event approches.
EFI for 14 May
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The plots above show the EFI for 14 May from different initial times.
The figure above show the CDF for Beograd, valid the 14 may. The observed precipitation for that day (0-0 UTC) was 112.6 mm (station 13274). The last forecast was more extreme than the earlier, but still underestimated the rain.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
3.6 EFAS
EFAS
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The figures above show the sites where the alert levels are reached in the EFAS forecasts. The colour of the circles corresponds to different return periods (purple>20 years).
The figures above show the modelled flow for river Sava, close to Beograd.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases