Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
In the third week of July 2023, southern Europe and Northern Africa was hit by a heatwave. On 18 July Rome broke the temperature record reaching 41.8C (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/18/italian-hospitals-report-rise-in-heat-cases-as-rome-hits-41-point-8c#:~:text=Temperatures%20in%20Rome%20hit%2041.8,C%20set%20in%20June%202022) with temperatures reaching above 47C on Sardinia. During a 2nd wave the week after even higher temperature was reached on the island.
During the heatwave, Greece was hit by severe wildfires, especially on the island Rhodes.
For a summary of about the temperature, see:
https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2023
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from15 July to 21 July 00UTC, every 24 hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for maximum 2-metre temperature on 18 July. Rome is marked with an hourglass.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for maximum 2-metre temperature on 18 July for Rome. Mean of observations - green hourglass, concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red dot, ENS blue box-and-whisker, ENS-EXT purple box-and whisker, ENS Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker and ENS-EXT Model climate – pink box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum/minimum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show 2-metre temperature anomalies for 17-24 July from different initial times with 7 days apart. While a warm western-central Mediterranean was captured at all lead times, the forecasts from 3 July and before missed the cold anomaly over northern Europe.
