Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Esti, ..
1. Impact
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for TC Belal for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 15 January 00UTC (first plot) to 8 January 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 15 January 00UTC (hourglass for BestTrack). HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
3.6 Machine-learning models
The plots below shows MSLP and 850hPa wind speed valid 15 January 00UTC from different lead times.
IFS
AIFS
Graphcast
PanguWeather
Fourcastnet
FuXi
ML centres comparison
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event