Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Esti
1. Impact
On the 5 October a small-scale cyclone brought strong wind gusts over the Netherlands and northern Germany, causing a few fatalities and travel disruptions.
2. Description of the event
The plot below shows an animation of MSLP and precipitation from HRES, with a small-scale cyclone developing over northern Germany.
The plot below shows the warnings on Meteoalarm from 5 October, with a red warning for wind gusts over northern Germany.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show the 24-hour maximum wind gusts from HRES for 5 October and MSLP valid 5 October 12z. The first plot shows 24-hour maximum wind gusts from observations.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for 24-hour wind gusts valid 5 October.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases