Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, David L., Esti,
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1. Impact
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, best track - black), position and intensity on 14 September 00UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 13 September (first plot) to 4 September (last plot).
The plots below show the 4 most westerly (red) and easterly (green) in the forecast from 4 September 12UTC (first plot), and the normalised difference between the cluster mean of westerly minus easterly members for 24h, 48h, 72h and 96h.
The plots below shows 3-day EFI and SOT for precipitation 14-16 September.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show weekly strike probability (left) and normalised accumulated cyclone energy from extended-range forecasts, valid for 10-16 September. The earlier part of the hurricane season had been quite, and the extended-range forecast seems to picked up the signal of a more active period 2-3 weeks before.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases