Research articles

2017 2016 2015 2014  2013  2012  2011  2010  2009  2008  2007  2006  2005

(* below means number of articles weakly related to TIGGE)

2017 (2, *0)

Vikram Khade, Jaison Kurian, Ping Chang, Istvan Szunyogh, Kristen Thyng, Raffaele Montuoro, 2017. Oceanic ensemble forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico: An application to the case of the Deep Water Horizon oil spill. Ocean Modelling, Volume 113, 171–184. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1463500317300525

Parsons, D.B., M. Beland, D. Burridge, P. Bougeault, G. Brunet, J. Caughey, S.M. Cavallo, M. Charron, H.C. Davies, A.D. Niang, V. Ducrocq, P. Gauthier, T.M. Hamill, P.A. Harr, S.C. Jones, R.H. Langland, S.J. Majumdar, B.N. Mills, M. Moncrieff, T. Nakazawa, T. Paccagnella, F. Rabier, J. Redelsperger, C. Riedel, R.W. Saunders, M.A. Shapiro, R. Swinbank, I. Szunyogh, C. Thorncroft, A.J. Thorpe, X. Wang, D. Waliser, H. Wernli, and Z. Toth  (2017): THORPEX Research and the Science of Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 807–830, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00025.1 

2016 (6, *0)

Martínez-Alvarado, O., Madonna, E., Gray, S. L. and Joos, H. (2016), A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 142: 196–210. doi:10.1002/qj.2645

Lee, H.-J., Lee, W.-S. and Yoo, J. H. (2016), Assessment of medium-range ensemble forecasts of heat waves. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 17: 19–25. doi:10.1002/asl.593

Bauer, P., Magnusson, L., Thépaut, J.-N. and Hamill, T. M. (2016), Aspects of ECMWF model performance in polar areas. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 142: 583–596. doi:10.1002/qj.2449

Jung, T. and Matsueda, M. (2016), Verification of global numerical weather forecasting systems in polar regions using TIGGE data. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 142: 574–582. doi:10.1002/qj.2437

Chen, P., Yu, H., Brown, B., Chen, G. and Wan, R. (2016), A probabilistic climatology-based analogue intensity forecast scheme for tropical cyclones. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 142: 2386–2397. doi:10.1002/qj.2831

Du, Y., Qi, L. and Cao, X. (2016), Selective ensemble-mean technique for tropical cyclone track forecast by using time-lagged ensemble and multi-centre ensemble in the western North Pacific. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 142: 2452–2462. doi:10.1002/qj.2838

2015 (8, *0)

Buizza, R., 2015. The TIGGE global, medium-range ensembles. ECMWF Technical Memorandum.,739, http://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/7529-tigge-global-medium-range-ensembles

Colby Jr, F. P. , 2015: Global Ensemble Forecast Tracks for Tropical Storm Debby. Weather and Forecasting, e-View, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-14-00083.1, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-14-00083.1

Jun, S., W. Lee, K. Kang, K. Byun, J. Kim, and W. Yun., 2015: Applicability of the superensemble to the tropical cyclone track forecasts in the western North Pacific. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 51, 1, 39-48. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13143-014-0058-x#page-1

Khan, M., A. Shamseldin, B. Melville, M. and Shoaib, 2015: Impact of ensemble size on TIGGE precipitation forecasts: An end-user perspective. Journal of Hydrological Engineering, 20, 2, 04014046. http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29HE.1943-5584.0001025

Komaromi, W. A., and S. J. Majumdar. , 2015: Ensemble-Based Error and Predictability Metrics Associated with Tropical Cyclogenesis. Part II: Wave-Relative Framework. Monthly Weather Review, e-View , doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00286.1 , http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00286.1

Kotal, S. D., S.K. Bhattacharya, S.R. Bhowmik, and P. K. Kundu, 2015: Development of NWP-Based Cyclone Prediction System for Improving Cyclone Forecast Service in the Country. In High-Impact Weather Events over the SAARC Region, pp. 111-128. Springer International Publishing, http://scholar.google.com/scholar?start=80&q=TIGGE+data&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5&as_ylo=2014

Swinbank, R., M. Kyouda, P. Buchanan, L. Froude, T. Hamill, T. Hewson, J. Keller, M. Matsueda, J. Methven, F. Pappenberger, M. Scheuerer, H. Titley, L. Wilson, and M. Yamaguchi, 2015: The TIGGE project and its achievements. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00191.1, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00191.1, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00191.1

Thorey, J., Mallet, V., Chaussin, C., Descamps, L., Blanc, P., 2015. Ensemble forecast of solar radiation using TIGGE weather forecasts and HelioClim database. Solar Energy 120, 232–243. https://hal-mines-paristech.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01184650/document

Yang, Q., S. N. Losa, M. Losch, T. Jung, and L. Nerger, 2015: The role of atmospheric uncertainty in Arctic summer sea ice data assimilation and prediction. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. e-View, doi: 10.1002/qj.2523, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2523/abstract

Zhou, B. Q., R. Y. Niu, and P. M. Zhai, 2015: An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data. Advance in Atmospheric Sciences , 32(3), 401–412, doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4026-2. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-014-4026-2#page-1

2014 (33, *0)

Bassill, N. P., 2014: Accuracy of early GFS and ECMWF Sandy (2012) track forecasts: Evidence for a dependence on cumulus parameterization, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 3274–3281, doi:10.1002/2014GL059839. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059839/full

Bauer, P., L. Magnusson, J.-N. Thépaut, and T. M., Hamill, 2014: Aspects of ECMWF model performance in polar areas. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1002/qj.2449, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2449/full

Breivik, Ø., O. J. Aarnes, S. Abdalla, J.-R. Bidlot, and P. A. E. M. Janssen, 2014: Wind and wave extremes over the world oceans from very large ensembles, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 5122–5131, doi:10.1002/2014GL060997. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060997/full

Cunningham, C., J. P. Bonatti, and M. Ferreira, 2014: Assessing improved CPTEC probabilistic forecasts on medium-range timescale. Meteorological Applications, doi: 10.1002/met.1464, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.1464/full

Descamps, L., C. Labadie, A. Joly, E. Bazile, P. Arbogast, and P. Cébron, 2014: PEARP, the Météo-France short-range ensemble prediction system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1002/qj.2469, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2469/full

Deng, C., P. Liu, Y. Liu, Z. Wu, and D. Wang., 2014: Integrated Hydrologic and Reservoir Routing Model for Real-Time Water Level Forecasts., Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29HE.1943-5584.0001138.

Ferranti, L., S. Corti, and M. Janousek, 2014: Flow-dependent verification of the ECMWF ensemble over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1002/qj.2411, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2411/full

Flowerdew, J. ,2014: Calibrating ensemble reliability whilst preserving spatial structure., Tellus A 66 http://tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/22662

Gray, S. L., C. M. Dunning, J. Methven, G. Masato, and J. M. Chagnon, 2014: Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 2979–2987, doi:10.1002/2014GL059282. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059282/full

Grumm, R.H., 2014: East Coast Snow event of 2-3 January 2014: The use and misuse of

NWP and uncertainty information. National Weather Service State College, http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/severe/2014/03Jan2014.pdf

Hamill, T.M., 2014: Performance of operational model precipitation forecast guidance during the 2013 Colorado front-range floods. Monthly Weather Review, 142, 2609–2618. e-View,doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00007.1 , http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00007.1

Hamill, T.M., and G.N. Kiladis, 2014: Skill of the MJO and Northern Hemisphere blocking in GEFS medium-range reforecasts. Monthly Weather Review , 142, 868–885. e-View, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00199.1 , http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00199.1

Jung, T. and Matsueda, M., 2014: Verification of global numerical weather forecasting systems in polar regions using TIGGE data. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1002/qj.2437. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2437/full

Keune, J., C. Ohlwein, and A. Hense, 2014: Multivariate probabilistic analysis and predictability of medium-range ensemble weather forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 142, 4074–4090. e-View , doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00015.1 , http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00015.1

Khan, M., A. Shamseldin, B. Melville, and M. Shoaib, 2014: Stratification of NWP forecasts for medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasting, Journal of Hydrological Engineering , 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001075 , 04014076. http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29HE.1943-5584.0001075

Komaromi, W.A. and S.J. Majumdar, 2014: Ensemble-based error and predictability metrics associated with tropical cyclogenesis. Part I: Basinwide Perspective. Monthly Weather Review , 142, 2879–2898. e-view, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00370.1 , http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00370.1

Liu, J. and Z. Xie, 2014: BMA Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting over the Huaihe Basin using TIGGE multimodel ensemble forecasts. Monthly Weather Review , 142, 1542–1555. e-View , doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00031.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00031.1

Lynch S. L. , and R. S. Schumacher, 2014: Ensemble-based analysis of the May 2010 extreme rainfall in Tennessee and Kentucky. Monthly Weather Review, 142, 222–239. e-view, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00020.1 , http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00020.1

Magnusson, L., J-R. Bidlot, S. Lang, A. Thorpe, and N. Wedi, 2014: Evaluation of medium-range forecasts for hurricane Sandy. Monthly Weather Review; e-View, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00228.1

Matsueda, M. and T. Nakazawa, 2014: Early warning products for severe weather events derived from operational medium-range ensemble forecasts. Meteorological Applications, doi: 10.1002/met.1444, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.1444/full

Matsueda, M., and T. Palmer, 2014: Predictability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in medium-range forecasts. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, 16, 12945. https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/wwosc/documents/WWOSC2014_MP_oral_final.pdf

Majumdar, S. J., and R.D. Torn, 2014: Probabilistic verification of global and mesoscale ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis. Weather and Forecasting, 29, 1181–1198. e-view, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-14-00028.1 , http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-14-00028.1

Nayak, M. A., G. Villarini, and D. A. Lavers, 2014: On the skill of numerical weather prediction models to forecast atmospheric rivers over the central United States, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 4354–4362, doi:10.1002/2014GL060299. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060299/full

Qi, L., H. Yu, and P. Chen, 2014: Selective ensemble-mean technique for tropical cyclone track forecast by using ensemble prediction systems. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society ,140: 805–813. doi: 10.1002/qj.2196, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2196/full

Rudack, D.E., D.P. Ruth, K.K. Gilbert, and T. Curtis, 2014: A first look at the meteorological development laboratory’s experimental ECMWF MOS system., In Preprints, 22rd Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc. http://origin.www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/amspapers/Rudack_et_all_2014.pdf

Su, X., H. Yuan, Y. Zhu, Y. Luo, and Y. Wang, 2014: Evaluation of TIGGE ensemble predictions of Northern Hemisphere summer precipitation during 2008–2012, Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmospheres, 119, 7292–7310, doi:10.1002/2014JD021733. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD021733/full

Tao, Yumeng, Q. Duan, A. Ye, W. Gong, Z. Di, M. Xiao, and K. Hsu., 2014: An evaluation of post-processed TIGGE multimodel ensemble precipitation forecast in the Huai river basin. Journal of Hydrology, 519: 2890-2905. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002216941400314X

Thorarinsdottir, T. L., M. Scheuerer, and C. Heinz., 2014: Assessing the calibration of high-dimensional ensemble forecasts using rank histograms. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics just-accepted: 00-00. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10618600.2014.977447#.VRMTaY5mrDs

Vogel, H., J. Förstner, B. Vogel, T. Hanisch, B. Mühr, U. Schättler, and T. Schad, 2014: Time-lagged ensemble simulations of the dispersion of the Eyjafjallajökull plume over Europe with COSMO-ART, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14, 7837-7845, doi:10.5194/acp-14-7837-2014, http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/14/7837/2014/acp-14-7837-2014.html

Wang, X. and T. Lei, 2014: GSI-Based four-dimensional Ensemble–Variational (4DEnsVar) data assimilation: formulation and single-resolution experiments with real data for NCEP Global Forecast System. Monthly Weather Review, 142, 3303–3325. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00303.1 , http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00303.1.

Xavier, P., R. Rahmat, W. K. Cheong, and E. Wallace, 2014:  Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation on Southeast Asia rainfall extremes: observations and predictability, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 4406–4412, doi:10.1002/2014GL060241., http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060241/full

Xu, J., J. Zhao, P. Wang, and S. Liu., 2014: Soil moisture prediction for Huaihe River Basin using hydrological model XXT and TOPMODEL., Applied Mechanics and Materials, 433, 1817-1820. http://www.scientific.net/AMM.433-435.1817.

Yoden, S., K. Ishioka, D. Durran, T. Enomoto, Y. Hayashi, T. Miyoshi, and M. Yamada, 2014: Theoretical aspects of variability and predictability in weather and climate systems. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95, 1101–1104. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00009.1 , http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00009.1

2013 (21,*8)

*Alves, J-H G. M., P. Wittmann, M. Sestak, et al., 2013: The NCEP-FNMOC Combined Wave Ensemble Product: Expanding Benefits of Interagency Probabilistic Forecasts to the Oceanic Environment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society . Dec2013, Vol. 94 Issue 12, p1893-1905. 13p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00032.1

Chang, E. K. M., M. Peña and Zoltan Toth, 2013: International Research Collaboration in High-Impact Weather Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, ES149–ES151. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00057.1

Chang, E. K. M., M. Zheng, K. Raeder, 2013: Medium-Range Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of Two Extreme Pacific Extratropical Cyclones. Monthly Weather Review . Jan2013, Vol. 141 Issue 1, p211-231. 21p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00304.1

*Davolio, S., M. M. Miglietta, T. Diomede, C. Marsigli, and A. Montani, 2013: A flood episode in northern Italy: multi-model and single-model mesoscale meteorological ensembles for hydrological predictions. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2107-2120, 2013 www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/17/2107/2013/

Demargne, J., L. Wu, S. Regonda, J. Brown, H. Lee, M. He, D-J Seo, R. Hartman, H. D. Herr, M. Fresch, J. Schaake, and Y. Zhu, 2013: The Science of NOAA's Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2013 ; e-View. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00081.1

Frame, T. H. A., J. Methven, S. L. Gray, M. H. P. Ambaum, 2013: Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic jet. Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 40, Issue 10, pages 2411–2416, 28 May 2013. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50454. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50454/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false

Gombos, D., and R. N. Hoffman, 2013: Ensemble-Based Exigent Analysis. Part I: Estimating Worst-Case Weather-Related Forecast Damage Scenarios. Weather & Forecasting . Jun2013, Vol. 28 Issue 3, p537-556. 20p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00080.1

*Halperin, Daniel J.; Fuelberg, Henry E.; Hart, Robert E.; Cossuth, Joshua H.; Sura, Philip; Pasch, Richard J., 2013: An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts from Global Numerical Models. Weather & Forecasting . Dec2013, Vol. 28 Issue 6, p1423-1445. 23p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00008.1

Hamill, T. M., G. T. Bates, J. S. Whitaker, D. R. Murray, M. Fiorino, T. J. Galarneau, Y. Zhu, W. Lapenta, 2013: NOAA's Second-Generation Global Medium-Range Ensemble Reforecast Dataset. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Oct2013, Vol. 94 Issue 10, p1553-1565. 13p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00014.1

*Hoover, B. T., C. S. Velden, S. J. Majumdar, 2013: Physical Mechanisms Underlying Selected Adaptive Sampling Techniques for Tropical Cyclones. Monthly Weather Review . Nov2013, Vol. 141 Issue 11, p4008-4027. 20p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00269.1

Jayakumar, A., V. Kumar, T N Krishnamurti, 2013: Lead time for medium range prediction of the dry spell of monsoon using multi-models. Journal of Earth System Science, August 2013, Volume 122, Issue 4, pp 991-1004. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12040-013-0321-z#

Kay, J. K., H. M. Kim, Y-Y. Park, J. Son, 2013: Effect of doubling the ensemble size on the performance of ensemble prediction in the warm season using MOGREPS implemented at the KMA. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, September 2013, Volume 30, Issue 5, pp 1287-1302. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-012-2083-y#

Khan, M., A. Shamseldin and B. Melville, 2013: Impact of Ensemble Size on Forecasting Occurrence of Rainfall using TIGGE Precipitation Forecasts. J. Hydrol. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000864 (Jun. 11, 2013). http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000864

Kuwano-Yoshida, A., T. Enomoto, 2013: Predictability of Explosive Cyclogenesis over the Northwestern Pacific Region Using Ensemble Reanalysis. Monthly Weather Review . Nov2013, Vol. 141 Issue 11, p3769-3785. 17p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00161.1

*Lavers, D. A., and G. Villarini, 2013: Were global numerical weather prediction systems capable of forecasting the extreme Colorado rainfall of 9–16 September 2013? Geophysical Research Letters. Volume 40, Issue 24, pages 6405–6410, 28 December 2013. DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058282. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL058282/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false

Li, J., R. Swinbank, R. Ding and W. Duan, 2013: Dynamics and Predictability of High-Impact Weather and Climate Events. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, ES179–ES182. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00213.1

Liu, Y., Q. Duan, L. Zhao, A. Ye, Y. Tao, C. Miao, X. Mu, J. C. Schaake, 2013: Evaluating the predictive skill of post-processed NCEP GFS ensemble precipitation forecasts in China's Huai river basin. Hydrological Processes, Special Issue: Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS), Volume 27, Issue 1, pages 57–74, 1 January 2013DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9496. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.9496/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false

Marsigli, C., A. Montani, T. Paccagnella, 2013: Perturbation of initial and boundary conditions for a limited-area ensemble: multi-model versus single-model approach. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume 140, Issue 678, pages 197–208, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2128/full

Matsueda, M. and T. Nakazawa, 2013: New Web-­‐based Forecasting Prototype Tool Early warning products for extreme weather events Derived from operational medium-­‐range ensemble forecasts http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.1444/pdf 

*Navascuésa, B., J. Calvoa, G. Moralesa, et al. 2013: Long-term verification of HIRLAM and ECMWF forecasts over Southern Europe: History and perspectives of Numerical Weather Prediction at AEMET. Atmospheric Research, Volumes 125–126, May 2013, Pages 20–33. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809513000483

Niu, R. and P. Zhai ,2013: Synoptic verification of medium-extended-range forecasts of the northwest pacific subtropical high and South Asian high based on multi-center TIGGE data. Acta Meteorologica Sinica. October 2013, Volume 27, Issue 5, pp 725-741. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13351-013-0513-0#

Qian, C., F. Zhang, B. W. Green, J. Zhang, X. Zhou, 2013: Probabilistic Evaluation of the Dynamics and Prediction of Supertyphoon Megi (2010). Weather & Forecasting . Dec2013, Vol. 28 Issue 6, p1562-1577. 16p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00121.1

Qi, L., H. Yu, P. Chen, 2013: Selective ensemble-mean technique for tropical cyclone track forecast by using ensemble prediction systems. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Early View.DOI: 10.1002/qj.2196. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2196/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false

Tsai, H-C, R. L. Elsberry, 2013: Detection of tropical cyclone track changes from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 40, Issue 4, pages 797–801, 28 February 2013. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50172 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50172/abstract;jsessionid=0541C3097DDB463C01844828EB614A9D.f01t02?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false

*Wang, F., 2013: WMO Information System: Beijing Global Information System Center. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 991–994. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00068.1

*Wick, G. A., P. J. Neiman, F. M. Ralph, T. M. Hamill, 2013: Evaluation of Forecasts of the Water Vapor Signature of Atmospheric Rivers in Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Models. Weather & Forecasting. Dec2013, Vol. 28 Issue 6, p1337-1352. 16p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00025.1

Wiegand, L., and P. Knippertz, 2013: Equatorward breaking Rossby waves over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean region in the ECMWF operational Ensemble Prediction System. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume 140, Issue 678, pages 58–71, January 2014 Part A. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2112. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2112/full

Ye, J., Y. He, F. Pappenberger, H. L. Cloke, D. Y. Manful, Z. Li, 2013: Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins.Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Early View. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2243. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2243/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false

Zheng, M., E. K. M. Chang, B. A. Colle, 2013: Ensemble Sensitivity Tools for Assessing Extratropical Cyclone Intensity and Track Predictability. Weather & Forecasting . Oct2013, Vol. 28 Issue 5, p1133-1156. 24p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00132.1

2012 (18, *5)

*Alfieri, L., P. Salamon, F. Pappenberger, F. Wetterhall, J. Thielen, 2012: Operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe. Environmental Science & Policy. Volume 21, August 2012, Pages 35–49. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901112000457

Bao, H., L. Zhao, 2012: Development and application of an atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic flood forecasting model driven by TIGGE ensemble forecasts. Acta Meteorologica Sinica. February 2012, Volume 26, Issue 1, pp 93-102 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13351-012-0109-0#

Belanger, J. I., P. J. Webster, J. A. Curry, M. T. Jelinek, 2012: Extended Prediction of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones. Weather & Forecasting . Jun 2012, Vol. 27 Issue 3, p757-769. 13p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00083.1

*Bouttier, F., B. Vié, O. Nuissier, L. Raynaud, 2012: Impact of stochastic physics in a convection-permitting ensemble. Monthly Weather Review . Nov2012, Vol. 140 Issue 11, p3706-3721. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00031.1

Davis, Christopher A., Wen-Chau Lee, 2012: Mesoscale Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Episodes from SoWMEX/TiMREX, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 69 (2), 521-537. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0120.1

*Davolio, S.; Miglietta, M. M.; Diomede, T.; Marsigli, C.; Montani, A., 2012. A flood episode in Northern Italy: multi-model and single-model mesoscale meteorological ensembles for hydrological predictions. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences Discussions . 2012, Vol. 9 Issue 12, p13415-13450. 36p. http://web.a.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=18122108&AN=84533803&h=3u9xvalSupOjslYxzT3W0I6EcD8PNLKJ3uTnFNgjgKStsRl0u8iiE6Q7ojFFjdMYfSl4K9hhQaR7eRZHk9hsVw%3d%3d&crl=c

Duan, M., J. Ma, P. Wang., 2012: Preliminary comparison of the CMA, ECMWF, NCEP, and JMA ensemble prediction systems. Acta Meteorologica Sinica. February 2012, Volume 26, Issue 1, pp 26-40. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13351-012-0103-6#

Duan, Yihong, Jiandong Gong, Jun Du, Martin Charron, Jing Chen, Guo Deng, Geoff DiMego, Masahiro Hara, Masaru Kunii, Xiaoli Li, Yinglin Li, Kazuo Saito, Hiromu Seko, Yong Wang, Christoph Wittmann, 2012, An Overview of the Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93 (3), 381-403. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00115.1

Galarneau, Thomas J., Thomas M. Hamill, Randall M. Dole, Judith Perlwitz, 2012, A Multi-Scale Analysis of the Extreme Weather Events over Western Russia and Northern Pakistan During July 2010, Monthly Weather Review, 140, 1639–1664. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00191.1

Gombos, Daniel, Ross N. Hoffman, James A. Hansen, 2012, Ensemble statistics for diagnosing dynamics: Tropical cyclone track forecast sensitivities revealed by ensemble regression, Monthly Weather Review, e-View. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00002.1

Hagedorn, R., Buizza, R., Hamill, T. M., Leutbecher, M. and Palmer, T. N., 2012, Comparing TIGGE multimodel forecasts with reforecast-calibrated ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. doi: 10.1002/qj.1895 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.1895/abstract

Hamill, T. M., 2012, Verification of TIGGE Multi-model and ECMWF Reforecast-Calibrated Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts over the Contiguous US Monthly Weather Review, e-View, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00220.1

Hamill, T. M., M. J. Brennan, B. Brown, M. DeMaria, E. N. Rappaport, Z. Toth, 2012: NOAA's Future Ensemble-Based Hurricane Forecast Products. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society . Feb2012, Vol. 93 Issue 2, p209-220. 12p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011BAMS3106.1

Kumar, A., A. K. Mitra, A. K. Bohra, G. R. Iyengar, V. R. Durai, 2012: Multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction of rainfall using neural networks during monsoon season in India. Meteorological Applications, Special Issue: Monsoons – prediction, variability and impact, Volume 19, Issue 2, pages 161–169, June 2012, DOI: 10.1002/met.254 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.254/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false

Schumacher, R. S., T. J. Galarneau, Jr., 2012, Moisture transport into midlatitudes ahead of recurving tropical cyclones and its relevance in two predecessor rain events, Monthly Weather Review, e-View. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00307.1

*Waliser, D. E., M. Moncrieff, D. Burridge, et al., 2012: The "Year" Of Tropical Convection (May 2008-April 2010). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Aug2012, Vol. 93 Issue 8, p1189-1218. 30p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011BAMS3095.1

*Wang, Y., S. Tascu, F. Weidle, K. Schmeisser, 2012: Evaluation of the Added Value of Regional Ensemble Forecasts on Global Ensemble Forecasts. Weather & Forecasting . Aug2012, Vol. 27 Issue 4, p972-987. 16p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00102.1

Xu, J., W. Zhang, Z. Zheng, M. Jiao, J. Chen, 2012: Early flood warning for Linyi watershed by the GRAPES/XXT model using TIGGE data. Acta Meteorologica Sinica. February 2012, Volume 26, Issue 1, pp 103-111. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13351-012-0110-7#

Yamaguchi, M., T. Nakazawa, S. Hoshino, 2012: On the relative benefits of a multi-centre grand ensemble for tropical cyclone track prediction in the western North Pacific. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume 138, Issue 669, pages 2019–2029, October 2012 Part B. DOI: 10.1002/qj.1937 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.1937/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false

Yang, C., Z. Yan, Y. Shao, 2012: Probabilistic precipitation forecasting based on ensemble output using generalized additive models and Bayesian model averaging. Acta Meteorologica Sinica. February 2012, Volume 26, Issue 1, pp 1-12. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13351-012-0101-8#

Yan, Z., J. Han, M. Jiao, J. Chen, Q. Ye, L. Zhao, K. Tu, 2012: Formation of an interactive user-oriented forecasting system: Experience from hydrological application in Linyi, Eastern China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, February 2012, Volume 26, Issue 1, pp 13-25. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13351-012-0102-7#

Zhao, L., Q. Dan , F. Tian, et al., 2012: Probabilistic flood prediction in the upper Huaihe catchment using TIGGE data. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, February 2012, Volume 26, Issue 1, pp 62-71. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13351-012-0106-3#

Zhi, X., H. Qi, Y. Bai, C. Lin, 2012. A comparison of three kinds of multimodel ensemble forecast techniques based on the TIGGE data. Acta Meteorologica Sinica. February 2012, Volume 26, Issue 1, pp 41-51. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13351-012-0104-5#

2011 (24, *7)

Colle, B. A., M. E. Charles, 2011: Spatial Distribution and Evolution of Extratropical Cyclone Errors over North America and its Adjacent Oceans in the NCEP Global Forecast System Model. Weather & Forecasting. Apr2011, Vol. 26 Issue 2, p129-149. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010WAF2222422.1

Cuo, L., T. C. Pagano, Q. J. Wang, 2011: A Review of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts and Their Use in Short- to Medium-Range Streamflow Forecasting. Journal of ydrometeorology. Volume 12, Issue 5 (October 2011) pp. 713-728 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1347.1

Du, J., and B. Zhou, 2011: A Dynamical Performance-Ranking Method for Predicting Individual Ensemble Member Performance and Its Application to Ensemble Averaging. Monthly Weather Review. Oct2011, Vol. 139 Issue 10, p3284-3303. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05007.1

Dupont, T., M. Plu, P. Caroff, G. Faure, 2011: Verification of Ensemble-Based Uncertainty Circles around Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts. Weather & Forecasting, Oct2011, Vol. 26 Issue 5, p664-676. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00007.1

Frame, T. H. A., M. H. P. Ambaum, S. L. Gray, and J. Methven, 2011, Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1288-1297. doi: 10.1002/qj.829 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.829/abstract

Froude, L. S. R., 2011: TIGGE: Comparison of the Prediction of Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones by Different Ensemble Prediction Systems. Weather and Forecasting, 26,388-398. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010WAF2222457.1

Grams, C. M., Wernli, H., Bottcher, M., Campa, J., Corsmeier, U., Jones, S. C., Keller, J. H., Lenz, C.-J. and Wiegand, L., 2011, The key role of diabatic processes in modifying the upper-tropospheric wave guide: a North Atlantic case-study, Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 2174-2193. doi: 10.1002/qj.891 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.891/abstract

Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, M. Fiorino and S. G. Benjamin, 2011, Global Ensemble Predictions of 2009's Tropical Cyclones Initialized with an Ensemble Kalman Filter, Monthly Weather Review, 139 (2), 668-688. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3456.1

Han, J., Q. Ye, Z. Yan, M. Jiao, J. Xia, 2011: Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems. Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering in China, December 2011, Volume 5, Issue 4, pp 533-542 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11783-010-0246-6

*Hirschberg, P. A., E. Abrams, A. Bleistein, et al.; 2011: A Weather and Climate Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Information. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Dec2011, Vol. 92 Issue 12, p1651-1666. 16p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00073.1

Kang, S.-D., D. W. Shin, S. Cocke, H.-D. Kim, W.-S. Jung, 2011: Comparison of ensemble methods for summer-time numerical weather prediction over East Asia. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, June 2011, Volume 113, Issue 1-2, pp 27-38 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00703-011-0148-6

Keller, J. H., S. C. Jones, J. L. Evans, and P. A. Harr, 2011: Characteristics of the TIGGE multimodel ensemble prediction system in representing forecast variability associated with extratropical transition, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12802, doi:10.1029/2011GL047275

Keller, J. D., A. Hense, 2011: A new non-Gaussian evaluation method for ensemble forecasts based on analysis rank histograms. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Volume 20, Number 2, April 2011 , pp. 107-117(11) http://umd.library.ingentaconnect.com/content/schweiz/mz/2011/00000020/00000002/art00003

Kim, S., R. M. Samelson, C. Snyder, 2011, Toward an Uncertainty Budget for a Coastal Ocean Model, Monthly Weather Review, 139 (3), 866-884. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3352.1

Kipling, Z., C. Primo, A. Charlton-Perez, 2011: Spatiotemporal Behaviour of the TIGGE Medium-Range Ensemble Forecasts*. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2561-2571. doi: 10.1175/2010MWR3556.1. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010MWR3556.1

*Li, X., H. Tian, G. Deng, 2011: Evaluation of the NMC regional ensemble prediction system during the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, October 2011, Volume 25, Issue 5, pp 568-580. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13351-011-0503-z

Majumdar, S. J., Chen, S.-G. and Wu, C.-C., 2011, Characteristics of Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter adaptive sampling guidance for tropical cyclones. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 503-520. doi: 10.1002/qj.746 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.746/abstract

Matsueda, M., 2011: Predictability of Euro-Russian blocking in summer of 2010, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06801, doi:10.1029/2010GL046557.

Matsueda, M., H. Endo, 2011: Verification of medium-range MJO forecasts with TIGGE. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11801, doi:10.1029/2011GL047480. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011GL047480.shtml

Matsueda, M., M. Kyouda, Z. Toth, H. L. Tanaka, and T. Tsuyuki, 2011: Predictability of an Atmospheric Blocking Event that Occurred on 15 December 2005, Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2455-2470.

*Mitra, A. K., G R Iyengar, V R Durai, J Sanjay, T N Krishnamurti, A Mishra, D R Sikka, 2011: Experimental real-time multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction of rainfall during monsoon 2008: Large-scale medium-range aspects. Journal of Earth System Science, February 2011, Volume 120, Issue 1, pp 27-52. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12040-011-0013-5

*Rossa, A., K. Liechti, M. Zappa, M. Bruen, U. Germann, G. Haase, C. Keil, P. Krahe, 2011: The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems. Atmospheric Research, Volume 100, Issues 2–3, May 2011, Pages 150–167 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.11.016

*Saito, K., M. Hara, M. Kunii, H. Seko, M. Yamaguchi, 2011: Comparison of initial perturbation methods for the mesoscale ensemble prediction system of the Meteorological Research Institute for the WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP).Tellus A, Special Issue: Special Issue on probabilistic short-range weather forecasting, Volume 63, Issue 3, pages 445–467, May 2011, DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00509.x http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00509.x/full

*Satterfield, E., I. Szunyogh; 2011: Assessing the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System in Predicting the Magnitude and the Spectrum of Analysis and Forecast Uncertainties. Monthly Weather Review. Apr2011, Vol. 139 Issue 4, p1207-1223. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3439.1

Schumacher, R. S., 2011, Ensemble-Based Analysis of Factors Leading to the Development of a Multiday Warm-Season Heavy Rain Event, Monthly Weather Review, 139 (9), 3016-3035 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05022.1

Tennant, W. J., G. J. Shutts, A. Arribas, S. A. Thompson, 2011: Using a Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme to Improve MOGREPS Probabilistic Forecast Skill. Monthly Weather Review. Apr2011, Vol. 139 Issue 4, p1190-1206. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3430.1

*Trevisan A., and L. Palatella,2011: Chaos And Weather Forecasting: The Role of The Unstable Subspace in Predictability and State Estimation Problems. Int. J. Bifurcation Chaos, 21, 3389. DOI: 10.1142/S0218127411030635 http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0218127411030635

Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Lu, Kuo-Chen; Elsberry, Russell L.; Lu, Mong-Ming; Sui, Chung-Hsiung; 2011: Tropical Cyclone--like Vortices Detection in the NCEP 16-Day Ensemble System over the Western North Pacific in 2008: Application and Forecast Evaluation. Weather & Forecasting. Feb2011, Vol. 26 Issue 1, p77-93. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010WAF2222415.1

Vannitsem, S., R. Hagedorn, 2011; Ensemble forecast post-processing over Belgium: comparison of deterministic-like and ensemble regression methods. Meteorological Applications, Volume 18, Issue 1, pages 94–104, March 2011, DOI: 10.1002/met.217 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.217/full

Wiegand, L., A. Twitchett, C. Schwierz, P. Knippertz, 2011: Heavy Precipitation at the Alpine South Side and Saharan Dust over Central Europe: A Predictability Study Using TIGGE. Weather and Forecasting Volume 26, Issue 6 (December 2011) pp. 957-974 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-10-05060.1

Yamaguchi, M., D. S. Nolan, M. Iskandarani, S. J. Majumdar, M. S. Peng, C. A. Reynolds, 2011, Singular Vectors for Tropical Cyclone–Like Vortices in a Nondivergent Barotropic Framework, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68 (10), 2273-2291. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JAS3727.1

2010 (16, *0)

Bougeault, P., Z. Toth, C. Bishop, B. Brown, D. Burridge, D. Chen, E. Ebert, M. Fuentes, T. Hamill, K. Mylne, J. Nicolau, T. Paccagnella, Y.-Y. Park, D. Parsons, B. Raoult, D. Schuster, P. Silva Dias, R. Swinbank, Y. Takeuchi, W. Tennant, L. Wilson and S. Worley, 2010: The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 91, 1059–1072. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010BAMS2853.1

Froude, L.S.R., 2010: TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 819-836. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010WAF2222326.1

Froude, L. S. R. and R. J. Gurney, 2010: Storm prediction research and its application to the oil/gas industry. In: Troccoli A (ed) Management of Weather and Climate Risk in the Energy Industry, NATO Science Series, Springer, 241-252. https://www.google.cz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjLg6nA-_LPAhUFuBQKHXiWBBcQFggyMAY&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocuments.worldbank.org%2Fcurated%2Fen%2F580481468331850839%2Fpdf%2F600510PUB0ID181mpacts09780821386972.pdf&usg=AFQjCNFdCiV4dxqs-4uQ9DtumFFS4JNDEA&sig2=rxFSqzuc6jVw66PKLRF6EA

He, Y., F. Wetterhall, H. Bao, H. Cloke, Z. Li, F. Pappenberger, Y. Hu, D. manful, and Y. Huang, 2010: Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July–September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study. Atmospheric Science Letters, 11, 132–138.

Huang, Y., Z. Li, Y. He, F. Wetterhall, D. Manful, H. Cloke, and F. Pappenberger, 2010: Uncertainty assessment of early flood warning driven by the TIGGE ensemble weather predictions. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 12, EGU2010-15497. http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2010/EGU2010-15497.pdf

Keller, J., 2010: Investigation of predictability during the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones using the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/168784.pdf

Keller, J., A. Hense, L. Kornblueh, A. Rhodin, 2010, On the Orthogonalization of Bred Vectors, Weather and Forecasting, 25 (4), 1219-1234, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010WAF2222334.1

McCaslin, P., T. Nakazawa, R. Swinbank and Z. Toth, 2010: Improving cyclone warning Case study: Philippines. WMO Bulletin, 59(2), 79-81.

Majumdar, S. J. and P. M. Finocchio, 2010: On the ability of global Ensemble Prediction Systems to predict tropical cyclone track probabilities. Weather and Forecasting, 25, 2, 659-680. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009WAF2222327.1

Nakazawa, T., and M. Matsueda, 2010: Genesis potential estimation of high-impact weather by TIGGE ensemble data. 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_168409.htm

Nakazawa, T., R. Swinbank, Z. Toth and E. Ebert, 2010: THORPEX/TIGGE applications to TC motion and forecasting. 7th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VII), La Réunion, France, 15-20 November 2010. https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/tmr/otherfileformats/documents/SF-2a.pdf

Ramos, M., I. Zalachori, T. Mathevet, C. Loumagne, 2010: Using the TIGGE database for ensemble hydrological forecasting: a study on 74 catchments in France. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #H23A-1166. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.H23A1166R

Schumacher, R. S., 2010: Predecessor Rain Events ahead of recurving tropical cyclones: Using numerical simulations and ensemble forecasts to quantify the rainfall enhancement. 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_169261.htm

Schumacher, R. S., and C. A. Davis, 2010: Ensemble-based uncertainty analysis of diverse heavy rainfall events. Weather and Forecasting, 25(4), 1103-1122. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222378.1

Yamaguchi, M. and S. J. Majumdar, 2010: Using TIGGE data to diagnose initial perturbations and their growth for tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 9, 3634-3655. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3176.1

Zhao, L., H. Wu, D. Qi, F. Tian, J. Di, Q. Duan, and Z. Wang, 2010: Evaluation of probabilistic precipitation forecast using TIGGE data over Huaihe Basin. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 12, EGU2010-15306-1. http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2010/EGU2010-15306-1.pdf

2009 (13, *1)

Bao, H., Z. Li, Z. Yu, 2009: Development of coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic flood forecasting system driven by ensemble weather predictions. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2009, abstract #H51G-0833. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.H51G0833B

Candille, G., 2009: The multiensemble approach: The NAEFS example. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1655–1665. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008MWR2682.1

Cloke, H. L., and F. Pappenberger, 2009: Ensemble flood forecasting: A review. Journal of Hydrology Volume 375, Issues 3–4, 15 September 2009, Pages 613–626 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169409003291

He, Y., F. Wetterhall, H. L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, M. Wilson, J. Freer and G. McGregor, 2009: Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions. Meteorol. Appl.. DOI: 10.1002/met. http://www.nmpi.net/wiki/images/3/34/TIGGE_HE_et_al2009.pdf

*Hewson, T. D., 2009: Diminutive Frontal Waves—A Link between Fronts and Cyclones. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences . Jan2009, Vol. 66 Issue 1, p116-132. http://web.b.ebsco host.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=00224928&AN=36078714&h=KWAlrAUGyYLbajKi0xLBdG2JDJ9DlbTQ1MyqntcsMQ8BWcfoof0svE6JlbEuJpPyzNc4iVZ%2bVlCPKSf2X%2bZ6Gw%3d%3d&crl=c

Jacobs, C. A. and S. J. Worley, 2009: Data Curation in Climate and Weather: Transforming Our Ability to Improve Predictions through Global Knowledge Sharing. The International Journal of Digital Curation. v.4, 68-79. http://www.ijdc.net/index.php/ijdc/article/viewFile/119/122

Johnson, C. and R. Swinbank, 2009: Medium-range multi-model ensemble combination and calibration, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 135, 777-794. http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/122246419/abstract

Keller, J. H. 2010: Investigation of predictability during the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones using the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_168784.htm

Krishnamurti, T.N., A. D. Sagadevan, A. Chakraborty, A. K. Mishra and A. Simon, 2009: Improving multimodel weather forecast of monsoon rain over China using FSU superensemble . Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. http://www.springerlink.com/content/h85463j782368381/

Matsueda, M., M. Kyouda, Z. Toth, T. Miyoshi, H. L. Tanaka, and T. Tsuyuki: On the predictability of a blocking occurred on 15th December 2005. Third THORPEX International Science Symposium. 14-18 September 2009, Monterey, USA. http://air.geo.tsukuba.ac.jp/~tanaka/papers/paper225.pdf

Matsueda, M. and H.L. Tanaka, 2008: Can MCGE Outperform the ECMWF Ensemble? SOLA, 4, 77-80. http://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/4/0/4_77/_article

Matsueda, M., 2009: Blocking Predictability in Operational Medium-Range Ensemble Forecasts. SOLA, http://dx.doi.org/10.2151/sola.2009-029

Weigel, A. P., and N. E. Bowler, 2009: Comment on ‘Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?’ Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume 135, Issue 639, pages 535–539, January 2009 Part B. DOI: 10.1002/qj.381 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.381/abstract

Zsoter, E., R. Buizza, D. Richardson, 2009: ”Jumpiness” of the ECMWF and Met Office EPS Control and Ensemble-Mean Forecasts. Monthly Weather Review. Nov 2009, Vol. 137 Issue 11, p3823-3836. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009MWR2960.1

2008 (13, *4)

Bowler, N. E., A. Arribas, K. R. Mylne, 2008: The Benefits of Multianalysis and Poor Man’s Ensembles. Monthly Weather Review . Nov 2008, Vol. 136 Issue 11, p4113-4129. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008MWR2381.1

Buizza, R., 2008: Comparison of a 51-Member Low-Resolution (TL399L62) Ensemble with a 6-Member High-Resolution (TL799L91) Lagged-Forecast Ensemble. Monthly Weather Review . Sep2008, Vol. 136 Issue 9, p3343-3362. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008MWR2430.1

Buizza, R., Y.-Y. Park, M. Leutbecher, and, F. Pappenberger, 2008: Predictability studies using TIGGE data. ECMWF Newsletter No. 116, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2-9AX, UK. Available from http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/product-descriptions/Media%20resources

*Buizza, R., M. Leutbecher, L. Isaksen, 2008: Potential use of an ensemble of analyses in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume 134, Issue 637, pages 2051–2066, October 2008 Part B. DOI: 10.1002/qj.346 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.346/abstract

Carlson, D., and T. Tin, 2008: Environmental Legacies of the International Polar Year. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Volume 89, Issue 36, page 331, 2 September 2008. DOI: 10.1029/2008EO360003 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008EO360003/abstract

Keller, J. D., L. Kornblueh, A. Hense, A. Rhodin, 2008: Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Volume 17, Number 6, December 2008 , pp. 707-718 http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/schweiz/mz/2008/00000017/00000006/art00002

Morss, R. E., J. L. Lazo, B. G. Brown, H. E. Brooks, P. T. Ganderton, B. N. Mills, 2008: Societal And Economic Research And Applications For Weather Forecasts. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society. Mar2008, Vol. 89 Issue 3, P335-346. 12P. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-89-3-335

Novak, D. R.; D. Bright, M. J. Brennan, 2008: Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles. Weather & Forecasting, Vol. 23 Issue 6, p1069-1084. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008WAF2222142.1

Pappenberger, F., J. Bartholmes, J. Thielen, H. L. Cloke, R. Buizza, and A. de Roo, 2008: New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L10404, doi:10.1029/2008GL033837. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008GL033837.shtml

Park, Y.-Y., R. Buizza, and M. Leutbecher, 2008: TIGGE: preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 2029-2050 http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/121516300/abstract

Rabier, F.; Gauthier, P.; Cardinali, C.; Langland, R.; Tsyrulnikov, M.; Lorenc, A.; Steinle, P.; Gelaro, R.; Koizumi, K., 2008: An update on THORPEX-related research in data assimilation and observing strategies. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics . 2008, Vol. 15 Issue 1, p81-94. http://web.b.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=10235809&AN=31198485&h=hYrvePeaoDOWaStc8czycJ0AtG%2bQP6aubnb8IUUHWavvdmPmmQRMexIIAJvByUVMB%2fpcaty2EWQAy1D%2fu4NhwA%3d%3d&crl=c

*Sellwood, K. J., S. J. Majumdar, B. E. Mapes, I. Szunyogh, 2008: Predicting the influence of observations on medium-range forecasts of atmospheric flow. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume 134, Issue 637, pages 2011–2027, October 2008 Part B. DOI: 10.1002/qj.341. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.341/abstract

*Thielen, J., J. Schaake, R. Hartman, R. Buizza, 2008: Aims, challenges and progress of the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) following the third HEPEX workshop held in Stresa 27 to 29 June 2007. Atmospheric Science Letters, Special Issue: HEPEX Workshop: Stresa, Italy, June 2007, Volume 9, Issue 2, pages 29–35, April/June 2008. DOI: 10.1002/asl.168 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.168/full

Titley, H., N. Savage, R. Swinbank and S. Thompson, 2008: Comparison between Met Office and ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecast systems, Meteorology R&D Technical Report no. 512, Met Office. Pdf

Titley, H., T. Hewson, C. Johnson and R. Swinbank, 2008: Predicting high-impact weather using medium-range ensemble forecasts. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, EGU2008-A-01494, 2008. http://meetings.copernicus.org/www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2008/01494/EGU2008-A-01494.pdf

Worley, S. Schuster, D., Raoult, B, Chen, D. and Gong, J., 2008: Improving High-impact weather forecasts EOS, 89, 36, 330-331. Pdf

*Sperber, K. R., D. E. Waliser, 2008: New Approaches to Understanding, Simulating, and Forecasting the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 1917–1920. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2700.1

2007 (3, *1)

Froude, L. S. R., L. Bengtsson, K. I. Hodges, 2007: The Prediction of Extratropical Storm Tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP Ensemble Prediction Systems. Monthly Weather Review . Jul2007, Vol. 135 Issue 7, p2545-2567. 23p. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR3422.1

Matsueda, M., M. Kyouda, H.L. Tanaka and T. Tsuyuki, 2007: Daily Forecast Skill of Multi-Center Grand Ensemble. SOLA,3, 29-32. http://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/3/0/3_29/_article

*Schaake, J. C., T. M. Hamill, R. Buizza, M. Clark, 2007: HEPEX: The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1541–1547. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-10-1541

Swinbank, R., H. Watkin, C. Johnson and S. Thompson, 2007: Medium-Range Ensemble Forecasts at the Met Office. http://www.wcrp-climate.org/WGNE/BlueBook/2007/individual-articles/06_Swinbank_Richard_WGNE_THORPEX_ensembles.pdf

2006 (1, *0)

Matsueda, M., M. Kyouda, H.L. Tanaka and T. Tsuyuki, 2006: Multi-Center Grand Ensemble using Three Operational Ensemble Forecasts.SOLA, 2, 33-36 http://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/2/0/2_33/_articlehttp://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/2/0/2_33/_article

2005 (1, *0)

Richardson, D., R., Buizza and R. Hagedorn, 2005: Final report of the 1st Workshop on the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). WMO TD No. 1273, WWRP-THORPEX No. 5 http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/TIGGEFirstWorkshopReport.pdf