Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
In January 2021 Singapore saw two major precipitation. The cases were reported in ECMWF User Forum: Severe Monsoon Surge in January over Singapore . This page shows evaluation for the first event on 1-3 January.
2. Description of the event
Accumulation of precipitation over Singapore from 1 January to 30 January 2021 from observations (black) and forecasts for the observation sites.
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour forecasts of precipitation from 30 December 00UTC to 4 January 00UTC, every 12 hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations and HRES forecasts of 72-hour precipitation valid 1-3 January, from different initial dates.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation valid 1-3 January, from different initial times.
The plot below shows the evolution of the 3-day precipitation starting on 1, in the box outlined in the plots above. The plot includes HRES (red dot), ENS control (purple dot), ENS distribution (blue box-and-whisker) and model climate (red box-and-whisker).
