Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Mohamed
1. Impact
In the last week of February a quasi stationnary low pressure trought brought very hight amounts of rainfal to South Quennsland and the North of New south Wales in Australia. The accumulated 3days rainfall exceeded 1400 in few locations (such as Mount Glorious). The persistent rainfal caused many rivers to overflow. The flood levels reached a record level of 14m for the river Lismore. Many casualties have been reported and a large number of people are still trapped by the flood. Although rain is still expected over the broad area the situation is improving.
2. Description of the event
The plots below show mslp from analysis and 6-hour precipitation forecasts from 24 February 00UTC to 28 February 00UTC.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
25 February
The plots below show 24-hour precipitation on 25 February from concatenated 6-hour forecasts (first plot) and HRES forecasts with different initial times.
25-27 February
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation on 25-27 February from concatenated 6-hour forecasts (first plot) and HRES forecasts with different initial times.
3.3 ENS
25 February
The plots below show EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation for 25 February, from different initial times.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation valid 25 February for the box outlined in the plots above. HRES –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts, The black square marks the ensemble/climate median and diamond ensemble/climate mean. (Climate and concatenated short forecasts to be added)
25-27 February
The plots below show EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation for 25-27 February, from different initial times.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation valid 25-27 February for the box outlined in the plots above. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts (green), HRES –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts, The black square marks the ensemble/climate median and diamond ensemble/climate mean. (Climate to be added)
