Description of the upgrade
With IFS Cycle 48r1, the horizontal resolution of the medium-range ensemble (ENS) will increase from 18 to 9 km. This will bring the ENS to the same horizontal resolution as the high resolution forecast (HRES). The vertical resolution for both ENS and HRES will remain at 137 model levels and the ENS will continue to have 50 perturbed forecasts.
Cycle 48r1 will also bring a major upgrade to the configuration of the extended-range ensemble (ENS extended): Rather than being an extension of the medium-range forecasts starting twice a week at day 15 it will be a completely separate system, running daily from 00 UTC out to day 46 with 100 members. The resolution will remain unchanged at 36 km horizontally and 137 model levels.
As a result of these configuration changes Cycle 48r1 will offer two sets of re-forecasts, one for the medium range and one for the extended range.
The implementation of Cycle 48r1 is currently planned for Q1 2023 and it will be the first new scientific model upgrade to run in ECWMF's new Data Centre in Bologna.
While no action is required at this time, as much notice as possible is given to users to plan and prepare for this increased resolution. Please note, at this lead time implementation date and content of this cycle are subject to change - please watch this page for further updates.
Implementation scheduled for Q1 2023, TBC
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NEWS!
Implementation now planned for Q1 2023.
Initial announcement.