Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Fernando, Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/06/09/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/06/10/sc/
Picture
1. Impact
On 9 June severe convection affected western Europe. In Germany 6 people were killed, mainly by falling trees. Wind gusts up to 42 m/s where reported from Duesseldorf airport.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27776189
2. Description of the event
The satellite imagery below (from late afternoon 9 June) shows convective activity occurring in France, NW Germany and Holland (also NE England). The lightning reports indicate two major areas of strong activity; in France and Germany/Holland.
Satellite sequence from EUMETSAT:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf0uLDqdoc4
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
Precipitation
24-hour precipiation
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Wind gusts
24-hour maximum wind gusts
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CAPE and CIN
Animation of RGB product from EUMETSAT, the max CAPE for +(6-24)h period (top-right) and maximum CAPE blended with CIN (CAPE is removed where CIN >= 200, bottom-left) based on 09@00 run for the HRES. One can see a good agreement between the high values of CAPE and the regions where the convection took place in particular over France and Benelux region. The convection triggered ahead of a cold front crossing the Iberia Peninsula seems to be in contradiction with the relative low values of CAPE forecast. It is possible that a dynamical lifting process helped to trigger the convection in the region
3.3 ENS
70% ENS percentile total PPN in 6h (top-left). Vis image at 1500 UTC and 3hrly PPN from HRES based on the latest run (bottom).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
TIGGE incl. TIGGE-LAM
4. Experience from general performance/other cases