Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Mohamed, Fernando, Ivan
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/10/31/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/03/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/04/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/05/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/06/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/07/sc/
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1. Impact
During the first week of November the north-central Mediterranean coast and the southern Alps were hit by intense rainfall and showfall (in the Alps). The situation was caused by a developing trough. Also Morocco was affected by heay rain (see daily reports above).
The unstable situation continued during November, see http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/13/sc/ and http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/17/sc/ .
2. Description of the event
Analysis of z500 and t850
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The plots above show analyses of z500 and t850 from 3 October to 9 October. During this period a sharp trough developed and reached northern Africa, bringing a warm and moist stream of air towards the Mediterranean coast and the Alps.
24-hour observed precipitation (06-06)
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The plots above show the 24-hour precipitation accumulation (ending of the labelled time). During the accumulation ending 4 November 06UTC the south central of France got extreme rainfall. The day after the area around Nice was worst affected together with the south-western part of the Alps and the are around Genua. On 6 November the south Tyrol got a lot of snow and on 7 October Slovenia was worst affected together with the area north of Neapel.
EFAS Ongoing alerts
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The plots above show the ongoing alert levels from EFAS where yellow is 2-5 years return period, red 5-20 and purple >20 years.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
EFI for 3-day precipitation
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3.4 Monthly forecasts
Weekly precipitation anomaly
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Weekly MSLP anomaly
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
- The flow situation has similarities with 201401 - Rainfall (+ snowfall) - Italy, Croatia, Serbia, Austria