Status:Finalised Material from: Linus, Mohamed, Fernando, Ivan
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/10/31/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/03/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/04/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/05/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/06/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/07/sc/
Picture
1. Impact
During the first week of November the north-central Mediterranean coast and the southern Alps were hit by intense rainfall and showfall (in the Alps). The situation was caused by a developing trough. Also Morocco was affected by heay rain (see daily reports above).
The unstable situation continued during November, see http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/13/sc/ and http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/17/sc/ - http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/18/sc/.
2. Description of the event
Analysis of z500 and t850
There are no images attached to this page.
The plots above show analyses of z500 and t850 from 3 October to 9 October. During this period a sharp trough developed and reached northern Africa, bringing a warm and moist stream of air towards the Mediterranean coast and the Alps.
24-hour observed precipitation (06-06)
There are no images attached to this page.
The plots above show the 24-hour precipitation accumulation (ending of the labelled time). During the accumulation ending 4 November 06UTC the south central of France got extreme rainfall. The day after the area around Nice was worst affected together with the south-western part of the Alps and the are around Genua. On 6 November the south Tyrol got a lot of snow and on 7 October Slovenia was worst affected together with the area north of Neapel.
EFAS Ongoing alerts
There are no images attached to this page.
The plots above show the ongoing alert levels from EFAS where yellow is 2-5 years return period, red 5-20 and purple >20 years.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
EFI for 3-day precipitation
There are no images attached to this page.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
Weekly precipitation anomaly
There are no images attached to this page.
Weekly MSLP anomaly
There are no images attached to this page.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
- The flow situation has similarities with 201401 - Rainfall (+ snowfall) - Italy, Croatia, Serbia, Austria