201507 - Heatwave - Western Europe

The plot below shows the Ensgram for Paris, also initialised 29 June 00UTC. The first part of the high-wave showed a peak on 1 June. The next plot shows the EFI for 1 June.

To see the evolution of the 2-metre temperature forecasts for 12UTC on the 1 June in Paris, the plot below shows all ensemble forecasts issued for this day (including monthly forecasts) and HRES forecasts (red dots). The percentiles for the ERA-Interim climatology is included as the grey bar on the 1 June.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

Forecasts valid Week 27

2-metre temperature
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z500
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The plot below shows ensemble forecasts for week 27 averaged in the box 40-50N, 0-10E. From 25 June and onwards the forecast has been very consistent, and the strong signal for the heatwave was predicted already on 22 June. The monthly forecast from 18 June was also for warmer than normal but not the one from 15 June. The z500 anomaly in the ensemble mean pattern over the Euro-Atlantic in the forecast from 18 June has the same structure as the current structure (Atlantic trough and European ridge). This was not the case for the forecast from 11 June that anyway had a warm anomaly for Western Europe.

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1. Impact

2. Description of the event

Analysis of z500 and t850

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

3.4 Monthly forecasts

Forecasts valid Week 27

2-metre temperature

z500

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material