Material from: Linus, Ervin
1. Overview
In the beginning of January 2026 large parts of Europe was under a cold spell and snowfall. The most extreme temperature anomalies were in Northern Finland and Sweden.
2. Analyses and Observations
2.1 Event Definition
Here we will focus on the 3-day mean 2-metre temperature 8-10 January in a box over mainly northern Finland (66N-68.5N, 22E-30E)..
2.2 Analyses
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 for the period 2 January to 11 January.
2.3 Observations
2.4 Climatological perspective
The plot below shows the 2-metre temperature anomaly for the week 5-11 January.
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3. Forecasts
3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage
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3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)
Observations and analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
3.3 Ensemble distribution
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
The plots below show EFI for 2-metre temperature valid 8-10 January.
Forecast Evolution plot
The plot below shows the forecast evolution for 2-metre temperature on 8-10 January for the box over northern Finland.
The plot shows the same as above but for sub-seasonal forecasts.
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Hazard Forecasts
5. Dedicated Experiments
6. Event Summary
6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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