Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Mohammed, Fernando
1. Impact
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-37570409
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
The plots below show the observation statistics for temperature (left) and wind vector (middle) from dropsondes and surface pressure observations (right).
29 September 00z
29 September 12z
30 September 00z
30 September 12z
1 October 00z
1 October 12z
2 October 00z
2 October 12z
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the forecast of tropical cyclone activity for 3-5 October, for forecasts with 1 day apart.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
The plots below shows the tropical cyclone tracks from 29 September 00z for ECMWF (left) and CMC and NCEP (right). The ECMWF ensemble showed two clusters (easterly, westerly) among the tracks. The Canadian ensemble favoured the west cluster while the NCEP ensemble only had members in the western cluster.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases