201410 - Snowfall/Floods - Bulgaria

 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from:

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

Picture

1. Impact

Heavy snowfall led to massive disruption in transport and power supply in parts of Bulgaria. Trees, still in leaf, collapsed and caused a widespread power outage. A state of emergency was declared in few municipalities in northern Bulgaria close to central part of the Balkan Mountain (Stara planina) where a snow cover of 40 to 50 cm formed just in 24 to 36 hours on Saturday 25th (see plots of snow cover below). The photos below were taken from one of the most affected regions. Torrential rain hit southern Black Sea coast and caused flooding in Burgas district.

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The most affected regions are marked in red on the map below.

2. Description of the event

Heavy precipitation fell in the northern slopes and the adjacent areas of Stara planina. Orographic enhancement of precipitation may play role in this case.

Deep snow cover formed in the areas close to central Stara planina mainly throughout Saturday 25th October.

A rapid cyclogenesis occurred over the Ionian Sea and moved eastwards towards the Aegean Sea where the cyclone started filling. The cyclone formed over an active cold front following the dissipation of the ex-hurricane Gonzalo that hit Western Europe earlier that week. The combination of that Mediterranean cyclone and an anticyclone to the north-northeast brought very cold air for the season.    

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material