Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
On 21-22 January the windstorm Isha hit Ireland and Great Britain with strong wind and caused 4 fatalities.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–24_European_windstorm_season
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 20 January 00UTC to 23 January 00UTC, every 12th hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 24-hour maximum wind gusts (21 January 00UTC - 22 January 00UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI for 1-day maximum wind gusts (21 January) from different initial dates.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event