Material from: Linus, Ervin, 


 


1. Overview

In the beginning of February, Queensland (Australia) was hit by extreme rainfall.  At least two people died, thousands had to be evacuated, large areas of land flooded, etc. See for example this article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-04/north-queensland-flooding-townsville-rainfall-flood-peak/104893294. Here, they also mention the highest observed precip totals, topping with 1936 mm in just 3 days in the coastal area just north from Townsville.

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp3j2w41qkko

2. Analyses and Observations

2.1 Event Definition

The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 72-hour rainfall on 31 January 00UTC  - 3 February  00UTC for the box 18.25S-19.25S, 145.8E -146.8 (see maps below for outline).

2.2 Analyses

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 30 January 00UTC to 3 February 00UTC, every 12th hour.

2.3 Observations

24-hour and 168-hour gridded observations in Queensland (roughly 2 Feb calendar day and added the 6 pervious days).

2.4 Climatological perspective

3. Forecasts

3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage

 

3.2 Single Forecasts for the event (defined in Section 2.1)

Observations an analysis for the event

Control forecast (IFS 9km)

DestinE (IFS 4.4km)

AIFS single v0.2.1 (0.25 degree resolution)

AIFS single v1.0 (0.25 degree resolution)

Step 0-72 missing

AIFS ensemble (1 degree resolution)

3.3 Ensemble distribution

EFI

Forecast Evolution plot for the event

Legend:
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE - dark-green dot
AIFS v0.2.1 - cyan dot
AIFS v1.0 - brown dot

ENS distribution - blue
ENS-AIFS distribution - grey
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle

3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts

The plots below show ensemble mean weekly average of precipitation 27 January - 2 February in forecasts from different initial dates (all Mondays).

3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Hazard Forecasts


5. Dedicated Experiments


6. Event Summary

6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

  • Wet signal present in sub-seasonal forecast (combination of La Niña and MJO?)
  • AIFS v1.0 better in magnitude and early signal

6.2 Experience from general performance/other cases

7. Additional material