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2. Description of the event
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Gallery includeLabel mslp_an sort comment title 12-hour forecasts of MSLP and precipitation
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The series of plots below shows short forecasts of MSLP and precipitation starting from 20 October to 29 October. During the whole 9 day period a more or less continuous rainfall affected south-western Norway, caused but a persisting low over Iceland bringing moist air from south-west towards Norway. Scotland was affected by heavy rainfall during the period as well.. The most intense
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rainfall occured between 26 and 28 October.
Gallery includeLabel efi13mslp_an sort comment title 3-day EFI (26-28 October)12-hour forecasts of MSLP and precipitation
The plots below shows observed accumulated precipitation for the stations Takle (61.03N, 5.28E, left) and Modalen (60.8686N, 5.9797E, right). The accumulation start 1 October. The normal October rainfall for Takle is 407 mm. The station Modalen was established 2008 and therefore are no normal values available (facts from yr.no). For both stations we see a rapid accumulation since the 22 October.
The plot below shows the red warning for south-western Norway for the 28 October.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for precipitation over the period 26-28 October, from different initial times. Already the forecast from 20 October had increased EFI values for the actual period.
Gallery includeLabel efi13 sort comment title 3-day EFI (26-28 October)
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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