Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/10/28/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/10/29/sc/
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1. Impact
2. Description of the event
12-hour forecasts of MSLP and precipitation
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3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The series of plots below shows short forecasts of MSLP and precipitation starting from 20 October to 29 October. During the whole 9 day period a more or less continuous rainfall affected south-western Norway. The most intense period was 26-28 October.
3-day EFI (26-28 October)
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The plots below shows observed accumulated precipitation for the stations Takle (61.03N, 5.28E, left) and Modalen (60.86, 5.97, right). The accumulation start 1 October. The normal October rainfall for Takle is 407 mm. The station Modalen was established 2008 and therefore are no normal values available (facts from yr.no). For both stations we see a rapid accumulation since the 22 October.
The plot below shows the red warning for south-western Norway for the 28 October.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases