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The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from15 from 15 July to 21 27 July 00UTC, every 24 hour.
The plot below shows a time-series of daily 2-metre temperature (based on 00 and 12UTC ERA5 analyses) for central Italy (red) and southern Sweden (blue), starting from 1 May. Thin lines represent daily mean, thick lines 7-day running mean and dashed lines ERA5 daily climatology. One can see the strong heatwave over Italy during July with two peaks on 18-19 July and 2 July. The temperatures sharply dropped after 24 July peak. While southern Europe saw the heatwave, Northern Europe was dominated by milder conditions during July, after a heatwave in June.
3. Predictability
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for maximum 2-metre temperature on 18 July. Rome is marked with an hourglass.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for maximum 2-metre temperature on 18 July for Rome. Mean of observations - green hourglass, concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red dot, ENS blue box-and-whisker, ENS-EXT purple box-and whisker, ENS Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker and ENS-EXT Model climate – pink box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum/minimum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show 2-metre temperature anomalies for 17-24 July from different initial times with 7 days apart. While a warm western-central Mediterranean was captured at all lead times, the forecasts from 3 July and before missed the cold anomaly over northern Europe.
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