Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
In the third week of July 2023, southern Europe and Northern Africa was hit by a heatwave. On 18 July Rome broke the temperature record reaching 41.8C (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/18/italian-hospitals-report-rise-in-heat-cases-as-rome-hits-41-point-8c#:~:text=Temperatures%20in%20Rome%20hit%2041.8,C%20set%20in%20June%202022) with temperatures reaching above 47C on Sardinia. During a 2nd wave the week after even higher temperature was reached on the island.
During the heatwave, Greece was hit by severe wildfires, especially on the island Rhodes.
For a summary of about the temperature, see:
https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2023
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from15 July to 21 July 00UTC, every 24 hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show 2-metre temperature anomalies for 17-24 July from different initial times with 7 days apart. While a warm western-central Mediterranean was captured at all lead times, the forecasts from 3 July and before missed the cold anomaly over northern Europe.
