Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
During the summer 2024 northern Canada was hit by several heatwaves, with severe forest fires as a result.
2. Description of the event
The evaluation of this event will focus on a 3-day period (9-11 August) for a 0.5/0.5 degree area around Bathaust (66.8N 108W).
The plot below shows the analysis of 3-day temperature for 9-11 August.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 3-day temperature 9-11 July.
The plot below show the forecast evolution for 3-day mean temperature for a 0.5/0.5 degree area around Bathaust (66.8N 108W).
Analysis - green dot
ENS control–red
ENS - blue box-and-whisker
Model climate (48r1) – cyan box-and-whisker
Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below shows a time-series of weekly 2-metre temperature anomalies for Northern Canada (land points in 60N-80N, 140W-100W), for ERA5 (black) and forecasts with different lead times (coloured lines).
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event