A new WWRP working group

Following the completion of THORPEX, a new World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) working group on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting (PDEF) has been formed. 

The new working group will:

  • combine elements of the former THORPEX working groups on GIFS-TIGGE and PDP;
  • involve both operational and academic communities in scientific research and development challenges;
  • provide a centre of scientific expertise on dynamics, predictability and ensemble forecasting that was previously not covered in the core WWRP programme;
  • support the WWRP research projects, including the 3 THORPEX legacy projects, S2S, PPP and HIWeather, plus other forecast demonstration projects (FDPs) and research and development projects (RDPs).

The group is chaired by Craig Bishop (NRL, Monterey, USA) and John Methven (University of Reading, UK), and includes scientific experts from a range of operational and research organizations, including the chair of the TIGGE panel.

Scientific Challenges

The PDEF working group will focus on a number of scientific challenges. The set of challenges is intended to evolve as priorities changes.  The initial challenges are listed below.

  • Stochastic representation of the effect of unresolved processes in numerical models  
  • Construction of ensemble initial conditions
  • Interactions of diabatic processes with meso/synoptic scale dynamics
  • Assessment of multi-model ensembles and calibration techniques
  • Coupled modelling & assimilation